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Union Berlin vs Freiburg

Fri 12 Mar 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 26 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Union Berlin win: 45.2%

Draw: 26.6%

Freiburg win: 28.2%

Predicted: Union Berlin

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 55.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 53.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.93

More corners: Union Berlin (52.7% home / 47.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Freiburg

Yes

Probability Freiburg wins or draws: 58.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Union Berlin Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 28%). (45.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Freiburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (59.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.